Watts in Store for 2027 : The AI Ceiling

Tomasz Tunguz argues the 2027 AI compute ceiling is about 80GW, roughly doubling all compute built in US history in twelve months, yet GPU hourly rental rates have already jumped from $3 to $12-13 and Anthropic's blended GPU-hour cost rose 82% in two quarters. He cites Brad Gerstner estimating 43GW coming online in 2027 against 38GW cumulative at end-2026, with 10-15GW of expected build possibly not coming online, and projects today's 38GW fleet earning about $140b while the 2027 additions deliver roughly $350b for nearly $500b total. Tunguz concludes that rising GPU prices may push foundation labs toward inference over training, make latency a release valve, encourage algorithmic innovation and harness efficiency, and force a reality check on vibe-coding economics.